Security of Supply

National hydro storage decreased 4 percentage points from 108% to 104% of average. This is driven by declining South Island hydro storage, a continued trend over the last three weeks. Manapouri is currently sitting at approximately 52% of full. However, we are anticipating it will be receiving an increase in rainfall over the catchment areas over the next week.

North Island storage has increased significantly from 119% to 134% of average. North Island inflows were significantly higher than the historical average over the last week.

OMV yesterday announced that planned production for Pohukura will be around 39PJ in 2021, this represents a 40% decrease in production from 2019. This announcement comes off the back of a long term investigation into the unexpected decline of production from the Pohokura field since May 2020. We anticipate that this decline will cause a constraint on thermal generation if we experience extreme dry year conditions.

The November update to the ERCs and SSTs has been published, there is an increase to risk in February, March and April that coincides with outages.

We have also published a Gas Shortage Scenario that included a Tiwai soft exit. This scenario includes a thermal derating that aligns more with the confirmed Pohokura production decline. In both scenarios none of the SSTs are forecast to cross into watch/alert during 2021.  

National demand increased this week, reaching 755GWh on both the 26th and 27th of November.

Renewable generation made up 88.5% of the generation mix over the last week.

Northland momentarily experienced a loss of supply of 30MW at 07:24:00 on the 2nd of December. However, due to recently upgraded protection on the affected circuits, the loss of supply was brief.

Further information here.

New Zealand and South Island storage are both in the Normal range.

 

Hydro Information

Further information here.

Storage increased in the North Island and has decreased in the South Island over the last week, with South Island storage at 65% of full and North Island storage at 87% of full.

 

Market Indicators

Further information here.

Renewable generation over the last seven days was 88% of total generation, with hydro generation accounting for 62% of total generation.

 

Policies and Publications

Includes information on the Annual Assessment and Transpower policies related to Security of Supply: the SoSFIP, EMP, and SOROP.

Consultations

Currently no consultations.