Electricity Risk Curves

Current Status

As at 6 April, the risk level for the New Zealand and the South Island is set to Normal.

  • Watch represents 8 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • Alert represents 3 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • If actual storage drops below Emergency level, an emergency situation will be declared and an Official Conservation Campaign will commence.

Electricity Risk Curves

New Zealand and South Island controlled storage is below average. The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Curves - Percentage Risk.

 

Electricity Risk Curve Files

  Latest New Zealand Electricity Risk and South Island Electricity Risk Curves [ pdf 1.31 MB ]
 

Electricity Risk Curve Data for 2021 [ xlsx 51.32 KB ] (Effective from 23 March 2021)

Simulated Storage Trajectories Files

 

Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 239.32 KB ] (Effective from 23 March 2021)

Assumptions and Update Logs

  Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories Assumptions [ xlsx 41.44 KB ] (Updated 23 March 2021)
  Electricity Risk Curve Update Log [ pdf 4.05 MB ] (Updated 23 March 2021)
  Nova Energy - Thermal fuel disclosure - 1 April 2021 [ pdf 92.28 KB ]
 

Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories Assumptions [ pdf 356.24 KB ] (base document effective from 22 December 2020)

Scenarios

  Simulated Storage Trajectories Reduced Gas Demand Flexibility [ pdf 1.47 MB ] (March 2021)
  ERC Reduced Gas Demand Flexibility Scenario [ pdf 1.59 MB ] (March 2021)
  Reduced Demand Flexibility Scenario ERC [ xlsx 13.9 KB ] data (March 2021)
  Simulated Storage Trajectories No Thermal Deratings [ pdf 323.93 KB ] (December 2020)
  ERC No Thermal Constraints Scenario [ pdf 558.69 KB ] (December 2020)
  Simulated Storage Trajectories Gas Shortage [ pdf 140.85 KB ] (November 2020)
  ERC Thermal Scenario [ pdf 2.01 MB ] (November 2020)

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